The question of whether any team in the National League truly has the ability to surpass the Dodgers remains open—and the possibilities are fascinating to explore. The race to beat Los Angeles is intense, especially in the NL, where most contenders understand that their path to reaching the World Series will often have to go through Chavez Ravine. But here's where it gets controversial: the Dodgers aren’t the only top-tier team anymore, and this offseason has seen multiple elite clubs make strategic moves to elevate their competitiveness. So, let’s break down which NL teams are most realistically capable of dethroning Los Angeles, ranked from most to least likely.
1. The New York Mets
Some may dispute my placing the Mets at the top, given they missed the postseason last year—a notable underperformance considering the talent they possess. (For reference, last year’s elimination is documented here: https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-eliminated-from-2025-playoff-contention.) However, after a significant overhaul—rebuilding roughly 30% of their roster—there’s no question that they maintain one of the strongest squads in Major League Baseball. An unconventional offseason in Queens has seen the Mets take bold defensive gambles, such as acquiring Bo Bichette at third base and Jorge Polanco at first, both known for their defensive capabilities.
They also parted ways with Edwin Díaz, who went to the Dodgers, raising questions about whether trusting underlying metrics about Devin Williams for next season was the right call—time will tell. The roster has notable injury concerns, which could be a challenge. Yet, the Mets have a formidable middle-infield pairing with Francisco Lindor at shortstop and Marcus Semien at second base, along with a promising addition of Luis Robert Jr. in center field. The rotation has improved significantly with Freddy Peralta joining, and a full season of young talent Nolan McLean adds promise.
Will chemistry and cohesion improve compared to last year’s struggles? That remains uncertain. Still, based on FanGraphs’ advanced projection—ranking third in team WAR behind only the Dodgers and Yankees—the Mets have demonstrated substantial talent. Despite fan frustrations over offseason departures, the sheer quality of this roster suggests they could go far and offer a serious challenge to the Dodgers when it matters most in the postseason.
2. The Atlanta Braves
Yes, I realize this may ruffle some feathers, especially coming from a (friendly) rivalry standpoint with Philadelphia, but based on the circumstances, I believe the Braves are poised for a bounce-back. Despite a disappointing 2025 season primarily due to injuries, Atlanta’s issues were clear. Starting pitchers like Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach suffered long stints on the injured list, while Reynaldo López's season was cut short after shoulder surgery, and Spencer Strider faced setbacks after returning from Tommy John surgery. Offensively, Austin Riley battled injuries, and by the time Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from knee surgery, the team was already out of postseason contention.
Nevertheless, the team has strong upside. The rotation could be formidable with Sale on a contract year, Strider healthier and more experienced, López returning, and emerging star Hurston Waldrep ready to contribute. Their bullpen was fortified with free agent signings like Robert Suárez and the re-signing of Raisel Iglesias—a move that adds stability to late innings.
Plus, a full season of Acuña back in the lineup cannot be overstated. These factors collectively position Atlanta as a serious contender to rebound significantly, making them a team to watch.
3. The Philadelphia Phillies
You might expect the Phillies to be at the top here, and they certainly could be. However, I rated them lower mainly because their offseason seemed somewhat underwhelming, and there are lingering questions about their ability to sustain success. Their recent October performances haven’t fully lived up to expectations, and concerns about age and rotation depth persist. For example, Zack Wheeler’s recovery from thoracic outlet decompression surgery is uncertain, and whether top prospect Andrew Painter can step in as a reliable ace remains to be seen. With the team’s average age around 30.3—second only to the Dodgers at approximately 30.7—they face similar aging risks.
While Los Angeles has often been praised for maintaining high performance despite aging rosters, Philadelphia’s talented core hasn’t yet proven they can get over the postseason hurdle consistently. Nonetheless, with talent still abundant, they remain in the mix among the top NL contenders, but the path to overtaking the Dodgers might require some additional roster adjustments or breakthrough performances.
4. The Chicago Cubs
Despite the somehow muted offseason, the Cubs finished at an impressive 92 wins last year and appear to be entering a period of stability with sustained competitiveness. Notably, they chose not to prioritize retaining Tucker, which indicates a willingness to make strategic moves—costly, yes, but sometimes necessary in the big market. The departure of Tucker, who commanded an average annual value near $60 million and was ranked among the game’s top players, raises questions about the outfield’s future depth. Seiya Suzuki has shown versatility, moving back to right field after thriving as a designated hitter, but the organization still needs to see if prospects like Matt Shaw can develop into viable outfield contributors.
In essence, the Cubs have built a solid foundation that could consistently contend but might need to be more aggressive mid-season to truly challenge the Dodgers in October. Their ongoing development and whether they hold their ground in the postseason race depend heavily on whether they continue to leverage their market size and make tactical improvements.
5. The Milwaukee Brewers
Here, I’ve ranked the Cubs slightly above the Brewers because projections suggest they have a higher upside, even though last year Milwaukee achieved an outstanding 97-win record and topped MLB in regular-season wins (https://www.mlb.com/brewers/standings/mlb). Despite that, their 2025 playoff run was cut short by a sweeping loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS—a tightly contested, well-pitched series that revealed weaknesses, especially offensively.
The Brewers lack consistent power-hitting, which could be a major issue against top-tier teams. However, they possess a powerful and deep pitching staff, even without Freddy Peralta. Notably, their acquisition of Angel Zerpa from the Royals and prospects like Brandon Sproat, obtained from the Mets, could strengthen their rotation. Still, addressing offensive potency—possibly through veteran additions like Eugenio Suárez—could elevate their chances further.
6. The Rest of the NL West
Teams like the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Francisco Giants all face an uphill battle to topple the Dodgers in the regular season, and no current projection system confidently supports their sustained dominance. That said, postseason surprises happen—recall the Padres' surge in 2022 or the Diamondbacks’ unexpected run in 2023. The Padres, in particular, have made some moves but continue to face challenges with their pitching staff after key departures and injuries, including Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
The Giants’ offseason was relatively quiet, but they added Rafael Devers mid-year—though that alone didn’t turn their fortunes around. A full season from Devers and prospects like Bryce Eldridge could spark a stronger offensive push. Their wild-card chances hinge on whether their modest offseason acquisitions—such as Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle—can deepen their pitching staff enough to be competitive.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are arguably the best positioned among these teams to make a postseason impact if they can stay healthy. Returning ace Corbin Burnes from Tommy John surgery and preserving stars like Ketel Marte can give them an edge. Their challenge is simply making it into October—once there, things could get interesting.
7. The Rest of the Field
Finally, the Dodgers, having managed their load effectively, secured both their division title and a high seed in last year’s NL playoff field, which allowed them to avoid the Wild Card round. Even with an 83-win Reds team opposing them in the series, LA’s talent proved too much to overcome, sweeping their opponents comfortably. Yet, in baseball—where upsets are part of the fabric—it’s not hard to imagine a middling team slipping into October and unexpectedly challenging the top teams. Could it be a red-hot Reds again? Or perhaps an underdog like the Marlins with a lineup of young, shrewd trade acquisitions?
The most intriguing scenario might involve the Pirates rising up to take the final NL playoff spot, forcing the Dodgers into the Wild Card Series once more—this time facing a rising star like Paul Skenes in a best-of-three. And honestly, wouldn’t that just be perfect for baseball fans?
In conclusion, while the Dodgers remain favorites, the road to dethroning them in the National League is dotted with contenders willing to challenge and surprise. So, what do you think—could any of these teams genuinely topple Los Angeles? Or is the Dodgers’ dominance simply inevitable? Drop your opinions below—let’s discuss the future of NL baseball.
